aapl: assuming a downtrend

Why I believe aapl is in a further downtrend:

a) General market: This week, traders are waiting to the market's reaction to the FED. People expect a correction of the general market.
Since November 24 (!) the Nas lost 40 points. Chartwise speaking there is a spreading that doesn't look promising, to say the least. Momentum
is falling since January 16, there were distinct drops, but no decisive rebounds. Altogether a picture that makes traders assume a correction soon.

b) aapl behaved very parallel to its index Nasdaq. Assuming that the general indices are increasingly volatile, so will be the share.

c) aapl now is moving within the 85 to 87 range. A rally over 87 on January 25 was immediately aborted. The volume remains small if there is an up-movement, but it's distinctive and considerable if it goes down. Selling pressure remains high and isn't balanced by buying.

d) As aapl can't break-out of 87, the downtrend will continue. Next supports: 84, then 81.50. It there needs to test a gap. However if the
general market corrects, there simply is no interest for those supports. Support-lines melt like snow in the sun in a correction.
At 84, or more at 81.50, it becomes obvious that aapl's trend (since July) has changed direction to the downside.

e) aapl's bumpiness this month would indicate that a linear progress has come to an end. I intuitively read from the candle charts (especially the island reversal after January 17) that a cyclical downtrend has started. I assume it will not last longer than until June/July. The release of the iPhone.

f) Fundamentals: In times of negativity (such as presently) each and every hint is used to downgrade a share. If Vista proves to be a viable programme, that news won't support aapl, as little as it supports msft at the moment (the share fell in anticipation ...).

As a consequence I am staying by the sideline, until good news is good again, and bad is bad. This isn't the case now. Good is bad and bad remains bad. In such times of confusion corrections occur easily, as a brain wash method.
May/June might be good times to buy, still ahead of the release of the iPhone.

Thinking oily

Bin am Träumen: Die grossen US-Energie- und Rohstoffekonzerne haben parallele Bewegungen gemacht. Ab dem Dezember haben sie in der Commodity-Baisse nachgegeben. Nun sind ihre Kurse wieder am Anziehen. Sie ahnen die Ölpreisentwicklung voraus. Ich erwarte, dass fürs nächste Halbjahr Industrials und Tech nachgeben, was mir nach den Jahreszahlen für das erste Halbjahr als Zyklus erscheint. Das Geld wird wieder in Rohstoffe umgelagert, auch in Vorwegnahme der Energiepreise, die nun plötzlich wieder ins Gerede kommen. Mit einer Investition in Energie kann man nicht falsch liegen. Peak-oil wird seine Konsequenzen haben.

Exxon: Die Aktie hat in den letzten Tagen zugelegt. Für ein Engagement geeignet, und mit einem besseren Hebel, als wenn man auf einen Öl-Index investiert. Falls man Freude an Hebeln hat, gibt's auch Optionen dafür. xomoc klingt atzekisch. Gefällt mir gut, der Name.

Was will die Zitrone?

Klar, man glaubt, die Zitrone sei zum Quetschen da. Unausgequetscht ist sie schöner. So wie ich. Oder ein Aktienkurs.

Das Börsenspiel macht süchtig, wie alle harten Gewinnspiele. Erfolg gibt Genugtuung. Misserfolge treiben in die Verzweiflung, dann in die Tollkühnheit.
Der Wechsel der Hormonkicks (Adrenalin vs. Endorphine) ergibt Empfindungsachterbahnen, von denen der Süchtige nicht loslassen kann, obwohl es ihn hin- und herwirft. Er gibt seine positiven Kräfte den Dämonen "Angst" und "Gier" ab. Die Teilnahme ist absurd; der Friede wird weggeben. Er setzt sich einer bipolaren, manisch-depressiven Gefühlswelt aus, die keine Ruhe kennt. Er ist gefangen, in der Tretmühle. Er wird zum Sisyphus.
Das im Auge zu behalten, ist für einen Spieler das Wichtigste. Ich bin dabei, wenn "Spiel und Spass" herrschen; wenn "Sucht und Getriebenheit" erscheinen, steige ich aus. Ich bin dabei, wenn nicht mehr die Emotionen "Angst" und "Gier" mich beherrschen, sondern ein engagiertes, freudvolles Streben. Ich bin dabei, wenn ich frei bin. Bei Anzeichen von tantalischer Gier steige ich aus.

Heute habe ich glattgestellt und ein Bad genommen. Wie herrlich. Ich pausiere, bis sich wieder Friede einstellt. In den freien Tagen gebe ich mich der Kunst und der Lektüre hin. Bin wieder für Kate da. Werde mich nach Dostojewskis "Spieler" umsehen. Der Mann, selbst getrieben, hat wie kein zweiter diesen Dämon, der in jedem lauert, analysiert und beschrieben. Knoten sind da, um gelöst zu werden. Musse und Musen helfen dabei. Was Eindrückliches lesen. Das neu Entdeckte beschreiben, malen...

Godly artistry

I am a newcomer in trading stocks, and really just about to get a bit mature in this field. I have not a completely free will doing this, it seems to me that I'm urged to it, and since I daily see that there is an inner urge and force in stock charts, too, I finally develop a religious feeling after decades of buddhistic atheism.

I see a powerful, awe inspiring hand in the charts -benevolent, clear, tough, uncompromising- and I feel connected to the "Substance" (as Spinoza called "God") by looking at the artistry in the charts and their supernatural rules and beauty. I might one day do art with charts, as the patterns, forms reflect the creation on the whole.

There are fighting animals, there are friends, there are archaic patterns of ancient peoples. All of it in the charts. Remember God giving the touch of life to Adam, as painted in the Sixtine chapel by Michelangelo. The painter had never seen drawing of price movements, but he subconsciouly knew the archetypical lines and shapes. The godly spark to life (as in the painting) is an archetypical movement, often to be seen in stock charts, too.

The sketches on the screen appear the same way as when the godly hand wrote on Belsazar's wall. "Mene mene tekel and parsin. It has been weighed and found wanting." That is a constant universal rule and governing everything, from Earth to Ether. The constant weighing and moving accordingly.

That's my interest now: doing some work to describe archetypical chart patterns, mathematical and geometrical (Substance-given) ratios and movements, creation and destruction, as related to the human psyche and subconscious, and reflected in all of what is existing. Let us not forget the Spinoza's first oberservation of the Substance: it needs do be. I would add: it needs to move. It needs to splash and repose. It wants to break-out and to withdraw. There is expansion, and contraction (quite mathematically describable), I even see all shapes of human emotions evolving in it, fear and courage, depression and frivolity.

Besides charting, I try to feel the sentiment/judgement as created in the news. They seem to me to be an instrument of the "Substance". However, reading those things, is not easy in the case of many shares, as there is not much media coverage, they are simply not discussed nor
in the focus of anybody. But I have seen that sometimes there is an article that doesn't seem noteworthy. But it is noteworthy. There is nothing not noteworthy. If there is a surprising move in a stock, people say: speculators, but I ask myself: What is going to happen that wasn't expected?
An example: Look at the chart of BP. We saw it at a miserable bottom three days ago. It then splashed, with huge volume, and started a clear decision to go up. Yesterday, we read that Lord Brown would retire soon. So, the share felt an oncoming event beforehand, before the media coverage of a turnaround or a new direction of the company.

The charts tell things in advance, that's why I believe in them. They are sketched by an invisible hand. They tell me when there is peace, and when there is war. They tell me that Israel will not attack Iran in the coming weeks, and probably not yet this year. Observe the connection of the value of the Sheikel, Tel-Aviv stocks, oil price, general condition of stocks. There is now a need to rest after belligerent rhetoric throughout 2006. The universe needs a repose. So here, I try to connect the charts to see the unpredictable, the moves and the throbbing and pulsing of the Universe. This is meditative, and it is about detecting my innermost feeling, so as to be able to judge the overall sentiment. I believe that we have got an ability in ourselves to get connected to humanity, as an organ of the Substance, and to know its movements, by deeply listening to ourselves. So, alltogether, it seems that my trading has got a spiritual nature.

When I describe charts, seeing their rules, I am always with the greatest respect to the force behind, and I really just try to detect what "it" is telling me. Its language is cryptic and enigmatic, and I sometimes I live days with chart pictures, to absorb the message. The Substance presently gives me a hand and shows me a new direction, after having humbled me for years. I don't understand the reason for this or that, and I guess the Substance, which I will call "S" from now on, doesn't know either. It does what it has to do. No reasing. But altogehter it certainly writes an interesting story. It is a story-writer and -teller. It humbles for embracing later. It kicks down to lift up. It seems absurd in a small perspective and glorious from a larger point of view.