Why I believe aapl is in a further downtrend:
a) General market: This week, traders are waiting to the market's reaction to the FED. People expect a correction of the general market.
Since November 24 (!) the Nas lost 40 points. Chartwise speaking there is a spreading that doesn't look promising, to say the least. Momentum
is falling since January 16, there were distinct drops, but no decisive rebounds. Altogether a picture that makes traders assume a correction soon.
b) aapl behaved very parallel to its index Nasdaq. Assuming that the general indices are increasingly volatile, so will be the share.
c) aapl now is moving within the 85 to 87 range. A rally over 87 on January 25 was immediately aborted. The volume remains small if there is an up-movement, but it's distinctive and considerable if it goes down. Selling pressure remains high and isn't balanced by buying.
d) As aapl can't break-out of 87, the downtrend will continue. Next supports: 84, then 81.50. It there needs to test a gap. However if the
general market corrects, there simply is no interest for those supports. Support-lines melt like snow in the sun in a correction.
At 84, or more at 81.50, it becomes obvious that aapl's trend (since July) has changed direction to the downside.
e) aapl's bumpiness this month would indicate that a linear progress has come to an end. I intuitively read from the candle charts (especially the island reversal after January 17) that a cyclical downtrend has started. I assume it will not last longer than until June/July. The release of the iPhone.
f) Fundamentals: In times of negativity (such as presently) each and every hint is used to downgrade a share. If Vista proves to be a viable programme, that news won't support aapl, as little as it supports msft at the moment (the share fell in anticipation ...).
As a consequence I am staying by the sideline, until good news is good again, and bad is bad. This isn't the case now. Good is bad and bad remains bad. In such times of confusion corrections occur easily, as a brain wash method.
May/June might be good times to buy, still ahead of the release of the iPhone.
